We have a real mixed trails forecast coming into this weekend so here’s where it’s expected to be good.
Two storms with significant rain and snow are predicted to hit Friday afternoon and Sunday night. Friday morning is expected to see significant southerly winds building up to the precipitation as well.
Thursday:
The warmth before the first storm will bring amazing trail conditions across the region through Thursday night. With the current snow line hanging around 7600’ (base of Sky Tavern), highest elevation trails will be mostly snow with some mud while the remainder of the region’s trails will be firm to slightly dry. Besides Tamarack and trails leading out of Tahoe Meadows, outdoor activities on Thursday should be amazing for getting outside.
Friday:
South facing trails will take the brunt of the wind Friday morning so most of the open trails in Rancho San Rafael, Sierra Vista Park, and Clear Creek will be windy. North facing options like the Tom Cooke, Canepa Ranch, and Galena trails will be spared the worst of the wind. East and West facing trails can expect headwind/tailwind conditions depending on how protected they are.
The rain is expected to increase through midday and evening with snow levels coming down to Galena trail locations overnight. There may be a window midday to midafternoon where water tolerant trails such as Callahan Ranch and Dry Pond loop are phenomenal, but that window may close very rapidly as rainfall increases towards the end of the day. The forecasted quickly increasing rain, high wind, and dropping temperatures suggest that Friday afternoon is a high risk time to be active outside. Please use caution and let people know where you’re going and when you’ll be back.
Saturday/Sunday:
Overnight (Fri-Sat) snow in mid elevations and low wind and temperatures through Saturday suggest there will be poor conditions for being outside early Saturday morning. Trails throughout the region are expected to be soggy or icey and very little drying is expected. High drainage and loamy areas will drain and absorb more and may improve through the weekend. Saturday afternoon and Sunday will be mixed conditions with sun exposed and low clay trails being in the best condition and shaded, high elevation, and high clay trails staying unfriendly. Best bets for fun will be Lower Galena area and Upper Sierra Vista park trails in the Truckee Meadows and Clear Creek and Prison Hill areas in Carson Valley. Peavine trails including Rancho and Lower Sierra Vista, Hidden Valley trails, and the Steamboat/Tom Cooke trails can expect persistent mud.
Sunday night through Tuesday have colder weaker storms forecast with a chance of valley snow. This would be a great time to get your annual maintenance done by a local bike shop or start unpacking your winter trail gear. Nevada Nordic is already open in Tahoe Meadows. This could be a pretty fantastic year for winter sports and maybe some double days, if you know what I mean.
If you do get out, be safe, have fun, wave at your fellow trail users, and send in a trail report to share the stoke. There is an anonymous reporting option incase you see something that needs attention but don’t want to out yourself as going into a closure area or social trail. ;)
Cheers,
Patrick